Written by Dr Jacqueline Rowarth

How can we feed an ever-growing global population with the least environmental impact? It has been a question occupying the minds of agricultural scientists for decades, and the improvements have been remarkable.

From Norman Borlaug’s Green Revolution in the 1960s and 70s, to genetic technologies and precision agriculture, more people have been fed to a higher nutritional standard than ever before. Efficiency gains are apparent through productivity increases – more yield per hectare, hour and unit of agrichemical. Farmers have worked with the scientists and rural professionals, suggesting ideas and then adapting the research findings to suit their farm systems. The information flow has been in several directions, and New Zealand has shown other countries what can be done by working together.

Globally, including in Ukraine and Russia, wheat yields are 3–3.5t/ha. Eric Watson of Ashburton broke the Guinness World Record for feed wheat in 2020 with a crop of 17.398t/ha. His achievement is a testament to precision agriculture – right place, time, form and amount. Productivity gains in the primary sector have led the statistics (sometimes being beaten by retail and IT) and, against predictions, have continued to be a major provider of export income.

The success in the food production sector has been built on science and technology, targeted at New Zealand’s soils, environment and farm systems, while watching developments overseas for relevancy. Any new research claiming benefits is examined for context and scientific credibility. Are the results robust? What’s the process or mechanism? Could it work in New Zealand? Are there any potential downsides? Scientists are innately sceptical. They ask questions to understand the drivers of change and avoid unintended consequences.

This explains the concern articulated by many New Zealand agricultural scientists about the current push towards organic regenerative farming systems. We’ve asked the questions, done the analysis and have concluded that the unintended outcome will be a reduction in food production resulting in escalating food prices.

Further, the belief that the environment will be better off is difficult to substantiate.

Record-holding Mid Canterbury farmer Eric Watson prepares his fields for crops.

The fundamental problem is the growth in global population. To feed more mouths using organic regenerative practices means that we will need more land. And that means expansion into what is currently not used for agricultural production. Suggestions that precision fermentation will take the place of animals overlooks the requirement for energy for the fermentation – a supply of sugar from cane, corn or beet. The sugar crops require land and all the usual fossil fuel and agrichemicals, including fertilisers, for production.

In New Zealand, moving to organic regenerative systems would mean that seaweed-based nutrient supplies and animal litter and bedding would be in short supply, and that means price increases.

Sri Lanka’s experiment in growing their major export crops like rice and tea organically shows the result – the country didn’t have enough organic sources of nutrients to cope. Food supplies reduced, prices escalated, and the timing with COVID-19 and reduction in tourism was appalling. The economy crashed and the riots continue.

Less dramatic but also important are the calculations for the EU’s Green Deal, which is putting land into organic production and reducing agrichemical inputs. The Green Deal has been accompanied with warnings from scientists on yield reduction, and economists have examined the consequences.

The United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Services’ analysis suggests that higher food prices would increase the number of food-insecure people in the world’s most vulnerable regions by 22 million (EU-only adoption) to 185 million (global adoption).

With all the evidence it is difficult to understand the push behind organic regenerative agriculture. New Zealand pastoral farmers have not degenerated their soils – they maintain high organic matter in their soil profiles. They are also at the forefront of fewest greenhouse gas emissions per kg of meat or milk – we have the data. And, contrary to general perception, per kg of production, the environmental impact of organically produced food is higher than that of conventional.

What New Zealand farmers have created is sustainable food production – maintaining soil quality under pasture and ensuring high welfare for their animals (the Animal Protection International Index assesses New Zealand as high or higher in farm animal welfare than our trading partners). It is the feed quality and high welfare that enable low GHG emissions.

To do better, we need to use all the tools we can, while developing more.

The future thinker Bjorn Lomberg (1), visiting fellow at Stanford University, agrees.

He is urging influencers, including governments and non-profit organisations, to focus on efficient agricultural production to prevent expansion into the conservation estate. Genetic engineering, improved pest control and irrigation and fertiliser are on his list as part of the solution to feeding people.

Science and technology have made, and will make, the difference in feeding people sustainably. Working together, New Zealand farmers, rural professionals and scientists will show the way.

Dr Jacqueline Rowarth is an adjunct professor with Lincoln University and a farmer-elected director on the Boards of DairyNZ and Ravensdown. The analysis and conclusions above are her own. jsrowarth@gmail.com

Source code 1. https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2022/05/13/viewpoint-organic-farming-folly-bjorn-lomborgsays-ukraine-war-has-exposed-europes-selfindulgent-obsession-with-low-yieldunsustainable-farmin/?mc_cid=2773753e38&mc_eid=d1b028cc70